One my focuses is the global economy and any cracks in the firmament which might presage the next recession. I rely a lot on my Twitter account to keep me on the crest of the wave, in this regard. I’m really concerned, as are many of my colleagues and contacts in business and government. We’ve … Continue reading The Next Recession – Will It Be A Global Meltdown?
One value the forecasting community can provide is to report on the predictive power of various leading indicators for key economic and business series. The Conference Board Leading Indicators The Conference Board, a private, nonprofit organization with business membership, develops and publishes leading indicator indexes (LEI) for major national economies. Their involvement began in 1995, … Continue reading Leading Indicators
Ukraine US financial showdown with Russia is more dangerous than it looks, for both sides Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at his most incisive. How the Ukraine crisis ends Henry Kissinger, not always one of my favorites, writes an almost wise comment on the Ukraine from early March. Still relevant. The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine … Continue reading Links – April 18
There seems to be a meme evolving around the idea that – while the official business outlook for 2014 is positive – problems with Chinese debt, or more generally, emerging markets could be the spoiler. The encouraging forecasts posted by bank and financial economists (see Hatzius, for example) present 2014 as a balance of forces, … Continue reading Global Economy Outlook – Some Problems
As of November, Janet Yellen, newly confirmed Chair of the US Federal Reserve Bank, doesn’t think so. As reported in the Wall Street Journal MONEYBEAT, she said, “Stock prices have risen pretty robustly”… But looking at several valuation measures — she specifically cited equity-risk premiums — she said: “you would not see stock prices in … Continue reading Stock Market Bubble in 2014?