Top Forecasters of the US Economy, 2013-2014

Once again, Christophe Barraud, a French economist based in Paris, is ranked as the “best forecaster of the US economy” by Bloomberg (see here).

This is quite an accomplishment, considering that it is based on forecasts for 14 key monthly indicators including CPI, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts, IP, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Nonmanufacturing, New Home Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment and GDP.

For this round, Bloomberg considered two years of data ending ended November 2014.

Barraud was #1 in the rankings for 2011-2012 also.

In case you wanted to take the measure of such talent, here is a recent interview with Barraud conducted by Figaro (in French).

The #2 slot in the Bloomberg rankings of best forecasters of the US economy went to Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics.

Here just an excerpt from an interview by subscription with O’Sullivan – again to take the measure of the man.

While I have been absorbed in analyzing a statistical/econometric problem, a lot has transpired – in Switzerland, in Greece and the Ukraine, and in various global regions. While I am optimistic in outlook presently, I suspect 2015 may prove to be a year of surprises.

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