The Next Recession – Will It Be A Global Meltdown?

One my focuses is the global economy and any cracks in the firmament which might presage the next recession. I rely a lot on my Twitter account to keep me on the crest of the wave, in this regard.

I’m really concerned, as are many of my colleagues and contacts in business and government.

We’ve hardly escaped the effects of last recession 2008-2009. Those are US dates, of course, set by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the official recession “dater” in this country.

There have been a series of rolling impacts and consequences of this so-called “Great Recession.”

Europe

Housing or real estate bubbles were present in Europe, too, particularly in Spain and Ireland. Then, there was the problem of the Greek economy and state, which did not support the level of public debt that had been garnered by, in some cases, corrupt public officials. And European problems were complicated by the currency union of the euro in a context where there is not, as yet, a centralized EU state. Anyway, not to reprise the whole matter blow-by-blow, but most of Europe, with the exception of Germany, plunged into recession and struggled with austerity policies that made things worse for Main Street or, as they like to say in Britain, “High Street.”

Many European countries are just now coming out of recession, and overall, the growth rate in the EU area is almost indistinguishable from zero.

So another recession in the next one to two years would really set them back.

China

Part of the problem China has been experiencing is related to the persisting downturn in most of Europe, since Europe is a big trading partner. And so, for that matter is the United States, which bought less from China during the recession years.

But another problem is that China now is experiencing a mojo big property bubble of its own.

Newly wealthy Chinese do not really have any place to put their money, except real estate. The Chinese, like the Japanese, are big savers, and for many middle class families, buying the second apartment or even a house is an investment for the future. Yet Chinese real estate prices have skyrocketed, leaving the average Chinese wage earner in the dust, with less and less hope of ever owning a residence.

Apparently, in connection with this real estate speculation, a large shadow banking system has emerged. Some estimates circulate on Twitter suggesting this rivals the size of the official Chinese banking system.

Can “market socialism” or “market Leninism” experience a financial crisis, based on too many debts that cannot be paid?

I’ve been to China a few times, and done some business there – all the while trying to understand how things are set up. My feeling is that one should not impute banking practices that seem pro forma in, say, Great Britain or the US, to the Chinese. I think they are much more ready to “break the rules” in order to keep the party going (which is sort of a pun).

Having said that, I do think a Chinese crisis could develop if property values collapse, as they are wont to do in bubble mode.

Again, it’s hard to say how this might play out, since the victims and suffering would be among the nouveau riche of China, of whom there are millions, and many more average families who have invested their nest egg in a hot property.

But I can’t think that collapse of real estate values in modern China would not have worldwide repurcussions.

The Rest of the World

Regrettably, I cannot go through other major regions, one-by-one, but I’d have to say that things are not so good. The BRIC’s as a group all have more problems than a few years back, when they were hailed as the bright new centers of economic growth by that Goldman Sachs analyst. That’s Brazil, Russia, India, and China, of course.

Possibilities of Increased Conflict

There is a kind of axiom of geopolitics and social interaction that when the pie is growing and everybody can get more, even though their slice may not have been very big to begin with, there is a tendency for people to make do, go about their business and so forth. Reverse this and you have the concept that shrinking the pie – as austerity policies and the Great Recession have done – tends to increase levels of conflict. At first, to the extent that people have the idea that “we are all in this together” there may be increased cooperation. But that is not the current situation in almost any society. Quite the contrary, as Piketty and the Occupy Movement highlight, there is growing awareness of inequality of wealth and income.

There are armed conflicts in Syria, the Ukraine, Afghanistan (resurgent Taliban), and areas and regions in Africa. The Indian elections recently installed a Hindu nationalist who hopefully will be a reformer, but may, if the going gets tough, revert or acquiesce to more conflict with Pakistan and with non-Hindu populations within India. Pakistan, one of the world’s nuclear powers, appears to be extremely unstable politically. There are deep civil divisions in Thailand between city and rural areas that parallel class divisions. China is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea.

And we may be moving from an era of US-centric global capitalism to a time when the Eurasian supercontinent will become significantly more important and perhaps decoupled from Wall Street and the City of London. Already, there are threats to dollar supremacy, and, historically, as US economic power is eclipsed by the more rapidly growing economies of Asia, some adjustment seems predictable.

In all this, Hollywood can be counted on to roll out some really corking new international intrigue films, perhaps (although I doubt it) with more complex plots.

The Situation with the US Federal Reserve Bank

The point of this international survey and reprise of recent business history is to highlight areas where surprises may originate, shaking the markets, and perhaps triggering the next recession.

But the most likely suspect is the US Federal Reserve Bank.

Two graphs speak volumes.

interestratesnew

Fedassets

Seeking to encourage economic recovery, the US Federal Reserve dropped the federal funds rate to a number effectively almost zero – a historically low number. This zero bound federal funds rate has persisted since the end of 2009, or for about five years.

The Fed also has engaged in new policies, whereby it goes into private bond markets and buys long term bonds – primarily mortgage-backed securities. The second chart tracks this inasmuch as a good portion of the more than 4 trillion in Fed assets (for which there are corresponding liabilities, of course) are these mortgage-backed securities. In effect, the Fed has purchased a sizeable portion of the US housing market – one might say “nationalize” except that would be forgetting the fact that the Fed is actually a private institution whose governance is appointed by the Executive Branch of the US government.

In any case, this bond-buying is the famous “quantitative easing” (QE) and is mirrored in the accumulation of excess reserves by the banking system. Generally, that is, banks and financial institutions issue mortgages, sell them among themselves to be packaged in mortgage-backed securities, and the Fed has been buying these.

Banks can easily loan these excess reserves, but they consistently have not. Why is an interesting question beyond the scope of this discussion, but the consequence is that the Fed’s actions are “firewalled” from increasing the rate of inflation, which is what ordinarily you might think would occur given that various metrics of money supply also have surged upward.

Now “Fed-watching” is its own little cottage industry among financial commentators, and I am not going to second-guess the media here. The Fed has announced a plan to “taper” these purchases of long term bonds. This is likely to increase the mortgage rates and, probably to some extent, based on expectations already has.

So, the long and the short of it are that this set of policies – zero federal funds rate and bond buying cannot go on forever.

If economic growth has been low-grade since 2010 with these low interest rates, what is the reasonable outlook for a higher interest rate regime?

Timing of the Next Recession

When is the most likely time for a recession, for example? Would it be later in 2014, in 2015, or thereafter, maybe in 2016.

Here is a table of all the recessions in the US since the middle 1850’s along with facts about their duration (source: NBER).

NBERRecess

Without even considering averages, the maximum period of trough to trough – that is, from the bottom of one recession to the bottom of the next – has been 128 months or ten years and eight months. Here, incidentally, the month numbers begin January 1800, for what that’s worth.

Thus, at the outside, based on these empirics, the trough of the next recession is likely to occur no later than early 2020.

Note that we have already blown through the average length from trough to trough of about 58.4 months or about five years from June 2009.

On a simple probabilistic basis, therefore, we are moving into the tail of the distribution of business cycle durations, suggesting that the chances of a downturn are in some sense already above 50 percent.

And note that the experience of the current business recovery is nothing like this historically maximum span in the 1990’s between the trough of the recession of 1990-1991 and the trough of November 2001.

This business recovery persistently seems to move ahead just above or, in the last quarter of 2013, below “stall speed.”

Seemingly, a fairly minor perturbation could set off a chain reaction, given the advanced frothiness in the stock market and softness in housing prices.

More of the Same, Worse

Neil Baroifsky was special inspector with oversight authority for the TARP during the bailout phase of the Great Recession, and currently is a partner in the Litigation Department of national law firm Jenner & Block LLP.

He’s also an author and often is called on for his opinion about developments in malfeasance writ large among the finance giants – such as the Credit Suisse settlement. In connection with a recent NPR interview, Barofsky said,

Although it is good that we averted a catastrophe back in 2008, the way that we did so I believe has unfortunately set the stage for an even more devastating financial crisis in the future.

HOBSON: In the future? How far?

BAROFSKY: Well, if I knew that, Michael Lewis would be writing his next book about people who made billions on timing the markets perfectly about me, which would be great.

(LAUGHTER)

BAROFSKY: But if you look, a lot of the same broken incentives from 2008 are still there. It’s just a question of when, not if. You can’t look at the fundamental broken incentives in the financial system and really come to a conclusion other than that we’re headed down the same dangerous path that we were that culminated in the explosion of ’08.

Barofsky’s point is readily supported by facts, such as –

The US and global financial system is even more concentrated today than in 2007, making “too big to fail”and even bigger potential problem now, than before the Great Recession. Even Alan Greenspan has taken note.

And the “pass the buck” system, whereby bond rating agencies are paid by the originators to evaluate exotic securities (“financial innovations”) created by the banking and shadow banking industries, securities which are then passed on to pension funds and hapless investors – this system appears to still be completely in place. Talk about the concept of “moral hazard.”

Global Impact

I think you get the picture.

For one reason or another, some fairly minor event is likely to set off a cascade of consequences in US and global financial markets, leading to the next recession. Probably, within one, two, or three years, as a matter of fact. Because the US Fed, and, for that matter, other central banks will still be working their way out of the last recession, there may be fewer “policy tools” to halt the stampede to sell, cutback, and so forth. Governments could respond with aggressive fiscal policy, but that option appears limited unless there are major changes in the political climate in the US and Europe.

Personally, I think wholly new directions of policy should be contemplated at the personal, local, regional, and of course at national levels.

We need to create what I have started to call “islands of stability.” This is the old idea of local self-reliance, but in new packaging. I really think there should be discussions widely across the US at least about how to decouple from the global economy and, indeed, from the financial concentrations on Wall Street. As a matter of self-preservation, until such time as more courageous national policies can be undertaken to reign in such obvious risks.

Daily Updates on Whether Key Financial Series Are Going Into Bubble Mode

Financial and asset bubbles are controversial, amazingly enough, in standard economics, where a bubble is defined as a divergence in a market from fundamental value. The problem, of course, is what is fundamental value. Maybe investors in the dot.com frenzy of the late 1990’s believed all the hype about never-ending and accelerating growth in IT, as a result of the Internet.

So we have this chart for the ETF SPY which tracks the S&P500. Now, there are similarities between the upswing of the two previous peaks – which both led to busts – and the current surge in the index.

sp500yahoo

Where is this going to end?

Well, I’ve followed the research of Didier Sornette and his co-researchers, and, of course, Sornette’s group has an answer to this question, which is “probably not well.” Currently, Professor Sornette occupies the Chair of Entreprenuerial Risk at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.

There is an excellent website maintained by ETH Zurich for the theory and empirical analysis of financial bubbles.

Sornette and his group view bubbles from a more mathematical perspective, finding similarities in bubbles of durations from months to years in the concept of “faster than exponential growth.” At some point, that is, asset prices embark on this type of trajectory. Because of various feedback mechanisms in financial markets, as well as just herding behavior, asset prices in bubble mode oscillate around an accelerating trajectory which – at some point that Sornette claims can be identified mathematically – becomes unsupportable. At such a moment, there is a critical point where the probability of a collapse or reversal of the process becomes significantly greater.

This group is on the path of developing a new science of asset bubbles, if you will.

And, by this logic, there are positive and negative bubbles.

The sharp drop in stock prices in 2008, for example, represents a negative stock market bubble movement, and also is governed or described, by this theory, by an underlying differential equation. This differential equation leads to critical points, where the probability of reversal of the downward price movement is significantly greater.

I have decided I am going to compute the full price equation suggested by Sornette and others to see what prediction for a critical point emerges for the S&P 500 or SPY.

But actually, this would be for my own satisfaction, since Sornette’s group already is doing this in the Financial Crisis Observatory.

I hope I am not violating Swiss copyright rules by showing the following image of the current Financial Crisis Observatory page (click to enlarge)

FCO

As you notice there are World Markets, Commodities, US Sectors, US Large Cap categories and little red and green boxes scattered across the page, by date.

The red boxes indicate computations by the ETH Zurich group that indicate the financial series in question is going into bubble mode. This is meant as a probabilistic evaluation and is accompanied by metrics which indicate the likelihood of a critical point. These computations are revised daily, according to the site.

For example, there is a red box associated with the S&P 500 in late May. If you click on this red box, you  produces the following chart.

SornetteSP500

The implication is that the highest red spike in the chart at the end of December 2013 is associated with a reversal in the index, and also that one would be well-advised to watch for another similar spike coming up.

Negative bubbles, as I mention, also are in the lexicon. One of the green boxes for gold, for example, produces the following chart.

Goldnegbubble

This is fascinating stuff, and although Professor Sornette has gotten some media coverage over the years, even giving a TED talk recently, the economics profession generally seems to have given him almost no attention.

I plan a post on this approach with a worked example. It certainly is much more robust that some other officially sanctioned approaches.

Leading Indicators

One value the forecasting community can provide is to report on the predictive power of various leading indicators for key economic and business series.

The Conference Board Leading Indicators

The Conference Board, a private, nonprofit organization with business membership, develops and publishes leading indicator indexes (LEI) for major national economies. Their involvement began in 1995, when they took over maintaining Business Cycle Indicators (BCI) from the US Department of Commerce.

For the United States, the index of leading indicators is based on ten variables: average weekly hours, manufacturing,  average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials, vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index,manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods, building permits, new private housing units, stock prices, 500 common stocks, money supply, interest rate spread, and an index of consumer expectations.

The Conference Board, of course, also maintains coincident and lagging indicators of the business cycle.

This list has been imprinted on the financial and business media mind, and is a convenient go-to, when a commentator wants to talk about what’s coming in the markets. And it used to be that a rule of thumb that three consecutive declines in the Index of Leading Indicators over three months signals a coming recession. This rule over-predicts, however, and obviously, given the track record of economists for the past several decades, these Conference Board leading indicators have questionable predictive power.

Serena Ng Research

What does work then?

Obviously, there is lots of research on this question, but, for my money, among the most comprehensive and coherent is that of Serena Ng, writing at times with various co-authors.

SerenaNg

So in this regard, I recommend two recent papers

Boosting Recessions

Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling

The first paper is most recent, and is a talk presented before the Canadian Economic Association (State of the Art Lecture).

Hallmarks of a Serena Ng paper are coherent and often quite readable explanations of what you might call the Big Picture, coupled with ambitious and useful computation – usually reporting metrics of predictive accuracy.

Professor Ng and her co-researchers apparently have determined several important facts about predicting recessions and turning points in the business cycle.

For example –

  1. Since World War II, and in particular, over the period from the 1970’s to the present, there have been different kinds of recessions. Following Ng and Wright, ..business cycles of the 1970s and early 80s are widely believed to be due to supply shocks and/or monetary policy. The three recessions since 1985, on the other hand, originate from the financial sector with the Great Recession of 2008-2009 being a full-blown balance sheet recession. A balance sheet recession involves, a sharp increase in leverage leaves the economy vulnerable to small shocks because, once asset prices begin to fall, financial institutions, firms, and households all attempt to deleverage. But with all agents trying to increase savings simultaneously, the economy loses demand, further lowering asset prices and frustrating the attempt to repair balance sheets. Financial institutions seek to deleverage, lowering the supply of credit. Households and firms seek to deleverage, lowering the demand for credit.
  2. Examining a monthly panel of 132 macroeconomic and financial time series for the period 1960-2011, Ng and her co-researchers find that .. the predictor set with systematic and important predictive power consists of only 10 or so variables. It is reassuring that most variables in the list are already known to be useful, though some less obvious variables are also identified. The main finding is that there is substantial time variation in the size and composition of the relevant predictor set, and even the predictive power of term and risky spreads are recession specific. The full sample estimates and rolling regressions give confidence to the 5yr spread, the Aaa and CP spreads (relative to the Fed funds rate) as the best predictors of recessions.

So, the yield curve, a old favorite when it comes to forecasting recessions or turning points in the business cycle, performs less well in the contemporary context – although other (limited) research suggests that indicators combining facts about the yield curve with other metrics might be helpful.

And this exercise shows that the predictor set for various business cycles changes over time, although there are a few predictors that stand out. Again,

there are fewer than ten important predictors and the identity of these variables change with the forecast horizon. There is a distinct difference in the size and composition of the relevant predictor set before and after mid-1980. Rolling window estimation reveals that the importance of the term and default spreads are recession specific. The Aaa spread is the most robust predictor of recessions three and six months ahead, while the risky bond and 5yr spreads are important for twelve months ahead predictions. Certain employment variables have predictive power for the two most recent recessions when the interest rate spreads were uninformative. Warning signals for the post 1990 recessions have been sporadic and easy to miss.

Let me throw in my two bits here, before going on in subsequent posts to consider turning points in stock markets and in more micro-focused or industry time series.

At the end of “Boosting Recessions” Professor Ng suggests that higher frequency data may be a promising area for research in this field.

My guess is that is true, and that, more and more, Big Data and data analytics from machine learning will be applied to larger and more diverse sets of macroeconomics and business data, at various frequencies.

This is tough stuff, because more information is available today than in, say, the 1970’s or 1980’s. But I think we know what type of recession is coming – it is some type of bursting of the various global bubbles in stock markets, real estate, and possibly sovereign debt. So maybe more recent data will be highly relevant.

“The Record of Failure to Predict Recessions is Virtually Unblemished”

That’s Prakash Loungani from work published in 2001.

Recently, Loungani , working with Hites Ahir, put together an update – “Fail Again, Fail Better, Forecasts by Economists During the Great Recession” reprised in a short piece in VOX – “There will be growth in the spring”: How well do economists predict turning points?

Hites and Loungani looked at the record of professional forecasters 2008-2012. Defining recessions as a year-over-year fall in real GDP, there were 88 recessions in this period. Based on country-by-country predictions documented by Consensus Forecasts, economic forecasters were right less than 10 percent of the time, when it came to forecasting recessions – even a few months before their onset.

recessions

The chart on the left shows the timing of the 88 recession years, while the chart on the right shows the number of recession predicted by economists by the September of the previous year.

..none of the 62 recessions in 2008–09 was predicted as the previous year was drawing to a close. However, once the full realisation of the magnitude and breadth of the Great Recession became known, forecasters did predict by September 2009 that eight countries would be in recession in 2010, which turned out to be the right call in three of these cases. But the recessions in 2011–12 again came largely as a surprise to forecasters.

This type of result holds up to robustness checks

•First, lowering the bar on how far in advance the recession is predicted does not appreciably improve the ability to forecast turning points.

•Second, using a more precise definition of recessions based on quarterly data does not change the results.

•Third, the failure to predict turning points is not particular to the Great Recession but holds for earlier periods as well.

Forecasting Turning Points

How can macroeconomic and business forecasters consistently get it so wrong?

Well, the data is pretty bad, although there is more and more of it available and with greater time depths and higher frequencies. Typically, government agencies doing the national income accounts – the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States – release macroeconomic information at one or two months lag (or more). And these releases usually involve revision, so there may be preliminary and then revised numbers.

And the general accuracy of GDP forecasts is pretty low, as Ralph Dillon of Global Financial Data (GFD) documents in the following chart, writing,

Below is a chart that has 5 years of quarterly GDP consensus estimates and actual GDP [for the US]. In addition, I have also shown in real dollars the surprise in both directions. The estimate vs actual with the surprise indicating just how wrong consensus was in that quarter.

RalphDillon

Somehow, though, it is hard not to believe economists are doing something wrong with their almost total lack of success in predicting recessions. Perhaps there is a herding phenomenon, coupled with a distaste for being a bearer of bad tidings.

Or maybe economic theory itself plays a role. Indeed, earlier research published on Vox suggests that application of about 50 macroeconomic models to data preceding the recession of 2008-2009, leads to poor results in forecasting the downturn in those years, again even well into that period.

All this suggests economics is more or less at the point medicine was in the 1700’s, when bloodletting was all the rage..

quack_bleeding_sm

In any case, this is the planned topic for several forthcoming posts, hopefully this coming week – forecasting turning points.

Note: The picture at the top of this post is Peter Sellers in his last role as Chauncey Gardiner – the simple-minded gardener who by an accident and stroke of luck was taken as a savant, and who said to the President – “There will be growth in the spring.”