Since my last post in 2017, I have hunkered down on a stock price forecasting idea and related trading system. With the help of several talented and dedicated persons over these years, we basically “got it.” What we created can be looked at as a “new paradigm” in stock trading – nothing less than that.

While I intend to evangelize this in coming posts, let’s first recognize startling developments since 2017 – with respect to the global economy, business forecasting and forecasting behavior more generally (e.g. predicting spread of COVID-19).

Google Analytics pinged me recently to note that tens of thousands visited this site in 2019 – even though posts stopped in 2017.

So here are some impressions.

First, the numbers for unemployment and impact of GDP from March 2020 on look like they are “off the charts.” Nothing has happened quite like the lockdown in the US, China, Korea, Japan, and many European countries.

As a secondary consequence, growth in liabilities of the Federal Reserve bank and the US deficit also are “off the charts.” Hockey stick movements up.

Meanwhile, the US stock market, probably because of massive injections of “liquidity” by the US Federal Reserve, has, as of this writing, nearly recovered peak levels seen before the February 2020 correction.

“Dr. Doom” – Professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University is back at it – predicting a decade of depression 2021 and later.

In short, this is a situation where there is a growing demand for some type of forward guidance, some predictions of what is going to happen.

My time resources for providing a public perspective on this are limited – but I think it does make sense to keep this blog moving forward.

Keep checking, and eventually, we will set up means to get notifications.

Stay safe and stay well.