Top Bloomberg Macro Forecaster Rankings for 2014

Bloomberg compiles global rankings for forecasters of US macro variables, based on their forecasts of a range of key monthly indicators. The rankings are based on performance over two year periods, ending November in the year the rankings are announced.

Here is a summary sheet for the past three years for the top twenty US macroeconomic forecasters or forecasting teams, with their organizational affiliation (click to enlarge).

Top Bloomberg rankings

SOURCES: http://www.christophe-barraud.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Classement-Bloomberg-janvier-20141.pdf, http://www.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r5M7ODl4WNms, https://www.economy.com/home/products/samples/2012-01-20-Bloomberg.pdf

The list of top forecasters for the US economy has been fairly stable recently. At least seventeen out of the top twenty forecasters for the US are listed twice; six forecasters or forecasting teams made the top list in all three periods.

Interestingly, European forecasters have recently taken the lead. Bloomberg News notes Number One – Christophe Barraud is only 27 years old, and developed an interest in forecasting, apparently, as a teenager, when he and his dad bet on horses at tracks near Nice, France.

In the most recent ranking, key indicators include CPI, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts, IP, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Nonmanufacturing, New Home Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment and GDP. A total of 68 forecasters or forecasting teams qualified for and participated in the ranking exercise.

Bloomberg Markets also announced other regional rankings, shown in this infographic

Bloombergmarkets And as a special treat this Friday, for the collectors among readers, here is the Ben Bernacke commemorative baseball card, developed at the Fed as a going away present.

Bernacke

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *